When can Judge Aaron bump into some Homer? update

Wendell Cruz USA Today Sports

Last week, we at FanGraphs came up with a fun idea: we imitative Aaron JudgeGames left millions of times over to see if and when he was likely to make some home highlights: Numbers 60, 61, and 62. At the time, the takeaway was clear: The judge was likely to score both of those highlights at home runs during Yankees Series in Toronto September 26-28.

Since this article was published, Judge has played six matches and only hit one ground. That changed the possibilities dramatically. More specifically, according to my simulation, here are the odds of him hitting at least 60, 61, or 62, either now or six games ago:

Possibilities of different HR totals

a job Odds at 9/6 Odds on 9/12
60+ Homer 89.4% 84.4%
61+ Homer 80.5% 71.8%
62+ Homer 68.7% 56.8%

Now, regarding the question we set out to answer: If you’re trying to see the judge’s 60th house in person, should you still head north to Toronto? Actually you should:

Aaron Judge odds of running 60 at home

day Discount home away Odds of reaching 60 hours
9/13 Boston far 0.0%
9/14 Boston far 0.0%
9/16 Milwaukee far 0.3%
9/17 Milwaukee far 1.0%
9/18 Milwaukee far 2.2%
9/20 Pittsburgh residence 3.1%
9/21 Pittsburgh residence 4.2%
9/22 Boston residence 5.4%
9/23 Boston residence 6.3%
9/24 Boston residence 0% (rest day)
9/25 Boston residence 6.9%
9/26 Toronto far 8.1%
9/27 Toronto far 8.0%
9/28 Toronto far 7.8%
9/30 Baltimore residence 6.5%
10/1 Baltimore residence 6.0%
10/2 Baltimore residence 5.4%
10/3 Texas far 3.9%
10/4 Texas far 3.5%
10/4 (AED) Texas far 3.1%
10/5 Texas far 2.7%

However, the second best series has changed. If you want a #60 and can’t travel to Canada, your best bet is to buy tickets to Yankee Stadium for the next series against the Orioles. It would be even more fun to see the judge match Babe Ruth’s best season at home, after all. Furthermore, you also have a good chance of seeing him match Roger Maris:

Aaron Judge odds of running 61 at home

day Discount home away Odds of getting to position 61
9/13 Boston far 0.0%
9/14 Boston far 0.0%
9/16 Milwaukee far 0.0%
9/17 Milwaukee far 0.2%
9/18 Milwaukee far 0.6%
9/20 Pittsburgh residence 1.1%
9/21 Pittsburgh residence 1.9%
9/22 Boston residence 2.8%
9/23 Boston residence 3.8%
9/24 Boston residence 0% (rest day)
9/25 Boston residence 4.6%
9/26 Toronto far 6.1%
9/27 Toronto far 6.8%
9/28 Toronto far 7.2%
9/30 Baltimore residence 6.6%
10/1 Baltimore residence 6.4%
10/2 Baltimore residence 6.2%
10/3 Texas far 4.8%
10/4 Texas far 4.5%
10/4 (AED) Texas far 4.2%
10/5 Texas far 3.8%

If you’re headed into that series against the Orioles — September 29 to October 1, just to put in the dates — you also have a 17.1% chance of seeing Homer’s 62 AL record. But this series is not your best opportunity to see this particular landmark. Despite the strong Texans staff and a tough home run, this series has one thing that’s very clear: additional gameplay. While none of the individual games have the best odds, the series as a whole is your best bet if you’re going to see one complete set:

Aaron Judge 62 home run odds

day Discount home away Odds of reaching position 62
9/13 Boston far 0.0%
9/14 Boston far 0.0%
9/16 Milwaukee far 0.0%
9/17 Milwaukee far 0.0%
9/18 Milwaukee far 0.1%
9/20 Pittsburgh residence 0.3%
9/21 Pittsburgh residence 0.7%
9/22 Boston residence 1.2%
9/23 Boston residence 1.8%
9/24 Boston residence 0% (rest day)
9/25 Boston residence 2.6%
9/26 Toronto far 3.8%
9/27 Toronto far 4.7%
9/28 Toronto far 5.5%
9/30 Baltimore residence 5.5%
10/1 Baltimore residence 5.7%
10/2 Baltimore residence 5.9%
10/3 Texas far 4.9%
10/4 Texas far 4.9%
10/4 (AED) Texas far 4.7%
10/5 Texas far 4.6%

So you have it: If you want to catch some specials at home, head to Toronto. or New York. or Texas. I don’t have any single answer for you, but I can say what Judge does over the next week has a lot to say about the odds of catching former Yankees greats, and we’ll have another update ready to publish as he nears 60 bombs and the end of the season.