What is truth and what is luck?

Each week, we’ll delve into our understanding of the most surprising fantasy performances from the NFL movement. These are the players who won – or maybe lost – your fantasy showdown. We like to think we know a few things after the first week, but trying to decipher the truth and what is a coincidence can tie your mind in knots. There are many reasons why logical decision-making falls by the wayside in fantasy football (see some of them here).

Let’s check out some of Week 2’s surprises and find out what we should expect ahead.

Fact or luck?

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

When I look for a pre-season rating incompetence, I like to find a low-ranked QB who has many passers-by at the higher levels. In Tua’s case, his team went out and found him the best talent of all but guaranteed progress in his second year. Trek Hill And the Jaylen Waddell Can clearly Coexist and thrive in this crime. In a back-and-forth shootout with Baltimore, Tagoviloa threw 50 passes—six for touchdowns (with 469 yards).

This unbridled performance is located in LUCKY STRIKE bin if not for reasons other than A) this Ravens aren’t even close to full defense and B) anyone with six TDs or 400+ yards is a game of chance. No one should expect that level of production every week, and this will likely be his best game of the season. I suspect the game’s competitiveness also contributed, by keeping the pressure to score over and over again; The perfect storm to perform luck. All that said, Tua should start every week in all SuperFlex or 2QB tournaments.

Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Kirk’s six hits in six for 78 yards would have been two more outstanding results in a typical week. But no, we had huge seven receivers picking up two or more landings in the second week!

With Kirk, it’s even more obvious that he also had six catches for 117 yards in his first week on 12 goals. Trevor Lawrence She was perfect for most of the first half in the big win over Indianapolis, finishing the game with an 83.3 completion percentage. It won’t be a week Realitybut there must be one thing: Lawrence’s chemistry with Kirk is real.

Jonathan Taylor, right back, Indianapolis Colts

Yikes.

What a disaster this game was for Taylor and his friends, family and fantasy directors. With nine outrageous attempts to dash and one goal for Taylor, it’s really no wonder that Jacksonville shut down the Colts. This kind of low Taylor use should never happen again; He averaged 6.0 YPC per day, which is slightly better than his 5.2 YPC in the first week. While I’m really worried about Matt RyanFor his ability to lead a dynamic attack, I expect the Colts to feed Taylor next weekend against Kansas City and beyond.

Another note, please LUCKY STRIKE The verdict is here: Jaguars are adept at eliminating the opponent’s best player. they held Terry McLaurin to two stops (although one was a touchdown) in the first week, and the case that really stands out is when they beat the Bills in Week 9 last year. Josh Allen He had the worst fantasy game of the season, with no touchdowns, two interceptions, and four sacks. Put chalk on that failed Taylor in your fortune column, and start it off with confidence next week.

JoJo Smith Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Most of us fantasy football fans don’t just think we know the difference should Dealing with their (our) skill players, some of us suffer from the optimism bias. In fact, the majority of people do, which means we’re more likely to believe good news than bad news, trust positive weather reports over negative ones, and keep starting Smith-Schusters in every league, because why wouldn’t he return for his 2018 model? Patrick Mahomes Throw the ball?

Are the directors of fantasy about to lose any remaining patience with JuJu? (Photo by Cooper Neal/Getty Images)

The first week was disappointing, but still fine; Smith Schuster saw seven goals and accumulated six for 79 yards. But the second week saw his goals drop to just three, as he picked up two of them for 10 yards. Mahomes said he would confuse it with Hill’s departure and did not lie. Five of his seven passes were passing to TEs or RBs.

FWIW, I’ll be sitting on JuJu for Week 3, which, if past results are any indication of future results, means he’ll score five points against Indianapolis. you are welcome.

Kyle Bates, TE, Atlanta Falcons

second? Sigh, yes again.

In fact, it was worse, and Bates now has a TE32 on the PPR record. From two stops on seven goals in the first week, when the Falcons topped most of the game to only lose in the final seconds to New Orleans, to two on three goals in a game where the Falcons track the rams all the time. Two completely different game scripts with similar results to Bates is troubling. Also, Atlanta has the fifth lowest pass-play percentage (48.8 percent) in two weeks, with Drake London Retaining a target share of 32.2 per cent. No other TE company is ruling out size from the Pitts, it seems Marcus Mariota and/or offensive training staff do not see Bates as the viable receiving weapon that we are using. Of course, part of the equation is that defenses take Bates very seriously, as he was a target of defensive coverage for the Saints star and Rams.

However, if you craft Pitts early on, you might hit the panic button here. It’s too early to give up and do something drastic like dropping it, but you can hit a fellow who was hoping the Bates would drop them in the draft for a bargain. There are enough narrow ends for waivers to stream for a few weeks (see Kmet’s announcement below, or consider adding one of my favorites before the season, Irv Smith Jr.to replace it).

If you can take advantage of Pitts to strengthen your RB/WR flex position through trade, he is doing more for you than he was. On the other hand, we’re not in the area of ​​the sunk cost fallacy with Bates. Yes, I invested a large amount of capital in it and it has not yet paid off, but the season is not over yet. If you can continue to comfortably include it; I don’t think you will be disappointed all year long.

The turnaround could come as soon as this weekend versus Seattle, by far the best game the Falcons have seen. In addition, if you carry Pitts, the names of your fantasy team are endless – Pitts of Despair, Money Pitts, etc.

Quick results: fact

Carson Wentz: Is Wentz the new Kirk Cousins? Or better? It takes QB3 out of fantasy in two weeks, with over 30 fantasy points per game. There is a lot of talent around him, from beginners Jahan Dotson To Terry McLaurin to Curtis Samuel And the Antonio Gibson. That, and the way this offense was competitive and aggressive over two matches made me believe.

Amon Ra Brown Street: He almost single-handedly woke up Lions’ fan base from years of deep depression. Michigan can watch football on Sunday again (also in time, with apologies to Michigan State fans) and the fantasy directors who trusted St. He has QB’s confidence and playmaking ability to keep this prolific race going all season long.

Cole qumt: Few things are stronger than optimism bias, and this one I admit defeat when it comes to my quantum. You’d think it was bad for Bates, well, Kmet is tied up in a TE70 with no Fantasia points on two targets. His ADP was TE12. White flags waving…Go get it Gerald Everett, Logan Thomas or Evan Ingram.

Noah Brown: Someone had to go up to be WR2 when Amary Cooper left Dallas, and with the simultaneous rise of Cooper RushIt appears to be brown. It is not at all uncommon for a relatively unknown receiver who has trained in backups to take center stage when upgrading a backup QB. sir lamb Still man, but Brown catching five of his seven goals for more yards than Lamb, including the result in Week 2, should be on your waiver radar.

Quick hits: luck

Davant Adams: I’m sure this doesn’t have to be said: Don’t worry, nothing happens. Adams Cardinals dared cover it up, and they did Derek Carr Leaves Darren Waller And the Hunter Renfro Have some fun. It’s modest, but Adams will definitely be back.

Mike Jesecki: Full disclosure: Jeske was dumbed down last year. I’m not an expert in crafting a premium grade TE, if you can’t figure it out. It was great to see him go down late in yesterday’s great game with Baltimore. In fact, he went 5 for 5 for 41 yards and the score yesterday which didn’t exactly help anyone who plays fantasy football. The team said they don’t plan to showcase his receiving skills, and they stuck with that for the first week. And it was also true that Gesicki wasn’t a priority in Week 2, given that Waddle and Hill shared 32 goals and run back six. Don’t rush to pick him up before next week’s game against Buffalo.

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