Super Bowl odds and best bets enter the NFL regular season

Spread the word: The Philadelphia Eagles seem to offer value as a potential Super Bowl winner.  (Doug Murray/AFP)
Spread the word: The Philadelphia Eagles seem to offer value as a potential Super Bowl winner. (Doug Murray/AFP)

Suspension

The NFL regular season hasn’t started yet, but that shouldn’t stop us from fast-tracking to the end of the playoffs and considering some exciting options to win the LVII Super Bowl in Glendale, Arizona. The predictions below are not a solid prediction of the eventual winner, or even the most likely participants. Instead, they are a side-by-side comparison of the current tournament odds with my predictions of each team’s chances of claiming the Lombardy Cup.

Remember, we are considering the future possibilities of the title game, so there can only be one winning card. But the goal is to identify as many teams as possible with expected positive value, with the hope of turning a profit at the end of the post-season period. The most effective way to do this is to bet on teams whose future prospects seem to be more profitable than they should be. Sometimes that means supporting the team not because it has a high chance of winning, but because it makes a good risk/reward show.

For example, let’s say you have a choice between two bets. One is on Team A, who we estimate has a 50 percent chance of winning the championship with -110 odds – betting $110 to win $100. The other is on Team B, who has a 5 percent chance of winning everything with a +3000 odds – a $100 bet to win $3,000. The latter is the “best” bet, with a positive expectation of $0.55 for every dollar wagered, assuming our estimates are accurate. (His first bet Negation Expect to lose $0.05 for every $1 risk.) Team A has 10 times the chance of winning a Super Bowl as Team B, but the odds make it a poor bet; A long shot is a much better value in the long run, even if the ticket isn’t cashed nearly as much.

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To get a sense of how well all 32 NFL teams have performed this year, we start with each team Pre-season ranking, derived from pre-season point spreads released earlier this summer. These rankings are then adjusted according to injuries, roster changes, and quarterbacks: the three most influential circumstances that can change a team’s outlook.

The resulting expected Super Bowl chances are what you would expect: Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs near the top, and the Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans near the bottom.

But that doesn’t mean there’s no value on the board. Here are three teams that seem worth keeping in your future Super Bowl purse.

San Francisco 49ers, +1600

Trey Lance, the third pick in the 2021 draft, is the new starting quarterback on the 49ers, who have played in two of the past three NFC Championship games. A double threat, Lance showed he can extend play with his legs and quickly take the ball out to the playmakers, a cadre that includes wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Keitel.

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San Francisco’s defensive collapse during the final quarter losing its NFC game to the Rams is still fresh in the minds of many, but don’t forget that the unit saved 2.5 points per game during the second half of the regular season according to TruMedia data, ranking more than a respectable 11 during this stretch. . The defense boasts being Nick Bossa’s assist passer (the fifth-best rusher from the edge of 2021, according to Pro Football Focus); Defensive lineman Eric Armstead (seventh best center player in 2021, per PFF), linebacker Fred Warner (eighth among midfielders in 2021) and safety Jamie Ward (who finished third in position).

Philadelphia Eagles +2500

NFC appears somewhat open, with question marks and disappointment scenarios swirling around several potential contenders.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady has braved the aging curve, but no one should be surprised if he’s regressed at the age of 45. In addition, Pro Bowl player Ryan Jensen has been placed in an injured reserve position and will be absent. Until November at leastBrady protection thinning. The Green Bay Packers said goodbye to Davante Adams, one of the game’s most prolific wide receivers, with no apparent replacement. Defending champions Los Angeles Rams may be feeling a little concerned about quarterback Matthew Stafford, who has not featured in any pre-season games because of what Coach Sean McVeigh described him as ‘abnormal’ Right elbow soreness. Wide receiver Van Jefferson suffered a left knee injury that required surgery during training camp, while linebackers Cam Akers and Daryl Henderson Jr. Dealing with “soft tissue injuries”, in McVay. Finally, Dallas Cowboys were lucky last year And he should fall back, maybe win less than 10 games, all of which could open the door for the Philadelphia Eagles.

Philadelphia, coming from a good 9-8 season for a wild card dock, made a clever, sneaky addition to the minor when it acquired defensive linebacker Chauncey Gardner Johnson of the New Orleans Saints (another under-the-radar NFC contender). Gardner Johnson, who is he? It is expected to be converted into a full-time security With the Eagles, he has had 161 combined tackles, three sacks, 28 defensive passes and five interceptions since being drafted in the fourth round in 2019.

The Raiders had a fairly quiet 10-7 last year before being off a strong season. the team Davant Adams added wide receiver, giving quarterback Derek Carr an elite goal to throw and a trio of capable passers in Adams and Hunter Renfrow and the end of Darren Waller’s court. Adams should definitely help improve the raiders’ offensive that only converted 52 percent of red zone chances, the sixth worst rate in 2021. Adams picked up 18 of the 27 red zone goals in Green Bay last season and earned nine more points than he had expected. Based on bottom position, distance and field for each red zone throw. That’s more than any recipient on last year’s Raiders list saved Renfrow (12 points more than expected).

In defense, Chandler Jones, another off-season possession, is an exceptional passing player who should help take some of the pressure off high school. Pro Football Focus ranked him as the eighth best passing attacker of 2021 having scored 10.5 sacks (his seventh season with double-digit sacks) and 47 total pressings.