Southampton’s well-developed defensive center could lead them to victory without conceding a net against Aston Villa on Friday football, as predicts mentor Jones Nose, who reviewed all seven matches in the Premier League over the weekend.
Aston Villa vs Southampton, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Armel Bella-Kotchap and Mohamed Salisu are a defensive duo that should be taken seriously. It’s an exciting opportunity for Southampton as Ralph Hessenhuttl, an offensive-minded manager, didn’t have a good base to work from.
In the four games since playing as centre-back, Saints has conceded an expected goal number of just 3.59, and that includes playing for Chelsea and Manchester United. Only Arsenal and Tottenham scored a better defensive personality in that period. However, the markets are pricing Southampton based on their long-term defensive data under Hasenhuttl which ranks them as one of the worst defenses in the Premier League.
A streak of no clean sheets in their last 12 Premier League games is sure to end soon based on their newfound defence, likely at Villa Park against Aston Villa’s attack. Bournemouth were the only ones to have had fewer shots and created fewer expected goals per game than Steven Gerrard’s side this season.
This defensive improvement in Saints changes the book’s usual attack when it comes to Southampton matches. Scoring by both teams and more than 2.5 corner goals has been profitable over the past year but with the Bella-Kuchap and Salisu pivot significantly impacting their defensive output, it was time to oppose the goals.
Southampton’s win over None does that to me in 11/2 with Sky Bet. It’s worth throwing in the mix Bella-Kutchap after his shot in the match also at the Evens with Sky Bet. The imposing centre-back has fired seven attempts on goal in his five matches and could threaten a seemingly shaky Villa side defending from set-pieces this season.
Predict the score: 0-2 | Jones knows your best bet: Southampton beat None and Armel Bella-Kutchap for one or more shots (12/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham, Friday 8pm
Don’t overthink: But what are the two most important locations on the football field?
If you initially thought the goalkeeper and striker, well done.
It makes sense doesn’t it? These players are the closest to the goal, so they will have a greater impact on the outcome of the match. Absolute cool stuff, I know.
The point I’m trying to make is that Fulham got these positions in a bind.
In goal they have Bernd Leno. The summer signing from Arsenal has been excellent this season and kept Spurs at bay at times in their last game. He’s made 19 saves since becoming first-choice, and conceded seven times in his four games so far, but Obta’s goal-projected model says he should have conceded nine, based on the quality of the shots he’s encountered.
Then you have Aleksandar Mitrovic, who shoots whatever is needed on the field, whether it’s in the opponent’s area or defending himself. If you give it to me or Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to lead my line, I’d choose the Serb.
His six goals in the Premier League this season mean he has now scored 27 goals in his last 29 appearances for the Cougars. The 5/2 on it and scored in Fulham with Sky Bet Doesn’t make a slight appeal.
Expected result: 1-2
Wolverhampton and Manchester City, Saturday 12.30 pm
Supporting wolves with a +2 handicap against big teams is like sleeping on a cold winter’s night. I feel relaxed and comfortable. And my confidence only increased by landing him on 10/11 with Sky Bet while watching Manchester City on Wednesday against Borussia Dortmund. As Pep Guardiola said, they lacked strength and aggression until the last 15 minutes. They can turn on taps at any time against any team but Wolves are a very tough team to create big chances against.
Bruno Lage’s team has a good overall record against teams that finished in the top nine last season. If you add up all these last 10 results, Wolves lost the aggregate score only 11-8 and lost by just over one goal in the 3-1 defeat to Liverpool on the final day of the Premier League season.
Wolves with a goal +2 start at 10/11 with Sky Bet (The bet that landed us on their away defeat at Tottenham) Which means the bet goes down if Wolves win, draw or lose by one goal, sounds like a reasonable game for those who like a shorter price.
Predict the score: 0-1
Newcastle vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm – Play SUPER 6 here!
Eddie Howe spent 19 years in total as a player and manager with Bournemouth, and led the club to three promotions as president, and it would be his first time facing the club as a manager. How that will translate into the outcome or finding a betting angle is tricky but I’m sure it will show previous employers a little mercy.
Newcastle are trustworthy at home when it comes to beating lower-ranked teams. Since February, they have delivered merchandise at home to Aston Villa, Everton, Brighton, Wolves, Leicester, Arsenal and Nottingham Forest, and have lost only one of their last 13 Premier League games at St James’ Park and that was against Liverpool. A home win on 4/9 with Sky Bet It should come in handy for those looking to build some short-priced corners this weekend.
Those who like a bigger price tag should consider Adam Smith getting his fifth booking of the season at 5/2 with the Sky Bet, especially if Allan Saint-Maximin returns from injury. The flying French winger has been responsible for 32 yellow cards from the opponent since the start of the 19/20 season – making him the eighth most magnetic card in the Premier League. And 65.6 percent of those yellow came when they were playing at St James’ Park.
Smith is only one game away from being suspended after picking up four bookings in his first six matches, and it could pay off to get that fifth game sooner or later so he can play without the constraints of being one card away from a ban.
Predict the score: 2-0
Tottenham and Leicester match, Saturday 5.30 pm, live on Sky Sports – Play SUPER 6 here!
This is a game full of betting opportunities as a free-flowing open showdown that should be played with most action coming towards the goal of Danny Ward.
For a coach whose side just lost 5-2, Brendan Rodgers was surprisingly humble when I attended his post-match press conference after Brighton’s defeat.
He has a contract with Leicester until June 2025 and deserves a huge payout should he be sacked. So, Leicester has a manager who can’t really afford to be fired and a manager who won’t walk away from his position. It is pickled.
Rodgers has spoken of low levels of trust within his team being the main source of problems. Of course this is a factor, but what about the defense structure? Only Leeds and Southampton have conceded more Premier League goals (75) since the start of last season than Leicester, whose expected goals against 81.47 data indicate that they were lucky to conceded only 75. Brighton.
It’s the second half of producing the most targets in the market that piqued my interest here at Even with Sky Bet. These types of markets that aren’t really priced on any kind of data or opinion are the ones that have sustainable edges to explore. They are the same prices shown for most weeks in every Premier League. Well, the second half to score the most goals should be the favourite here.
Since Antonio Conte took charge of Spurs, only Manchester City and Liverpool have scored more goals in the second half of matches than Spurs’ 40. During the same period, only Leeds scored more goals in the second half than Leicester’s 31.
Spurs are known for being slow at the start as well, with the second half scoring more goals than the first in all of the last three games in all competitions. Meanwhile, Leicester have conceded two or more goals in five of their second six goals this season in the Premier League. I expect a good start before Spurs put their foot down after the break when Leicester’s defense will likely shrivel – as always.
Predict the score: 4-1 | Jones knows your best bet: Most goals in the second half (even with Sky Bet – bet here!)
Brentford and Arsenal match, Sunday 12 pm, live on Sky Sports – Play SUPER 6 here!
Match prices seem right to me in what should be a competitive encounter that the far side has to outdo. Arsenal are the favorites at 4/5 with Sky Bet which will tempt many but it may be time to end their strange run without a draw. It’s been 24 Premier League games since one of their matches came to an end – the longest by any Premier League team. This trend will be broken soon, maybe here when the price is almost 3/1 with Sky Bet.
On an even stronger whim, I went searching the player footage market for a potential game.
Brentford’s desire to defend deep without the ball leaves them vulnerable to facing shots at their goal from outside the penalty area. They have conceded 38 shots on goal this season – six more than any other team with 12 of those shots. This puts Gabriel Martinelli into the equation for a shot on goal from outside the penalty area at 100/30 with Sky Bet.
Playing from the left and turning on his right foot opens up potential for shots from distance as evidenced by his eight efforts in such situations this season – no Arsenal player has had more. Only two of these hit the target but at the prices offered, it should definitely be a bet that will give you a good shot at your money.
Predict the score: 1-1
Everton vs West Ham, Sunday 2.15pm, live on Sky Sports – Play SUPER 6 here!
Yes, Everton haven’t won this season yet, but Frank Lampard deserves more praise than he receives. I’m sure that will come soon and it will be the flavor of the month because this Everton side now looks like a team capable of stepping up the table and causing problems for opposition teams – even those as experienced and talented as West Ham. .
According to my eyes and key performance data, this match should be closer than the markets are saying.
Lampard has built a strong backbone in the center of defense and a midfield that plays with aggression, consistency and ability. They finished the match against Liverpool with Alex Iwobi, Idrissa Guy and Amadou Onana there – an exciting combination. Nor am I convinced that West Ham have the legs in midfield to consistently make their mark in games.
Lampard’s side posts encouraging offensive metrics.
Only Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal and Tottenham have scored more shots on target in their last five Premier League games than Everton, who scored a healthy expected 1.72 against Liverpool. They have actually scored an expected goal number greater than 1.00 in their last five matches. Duplicating these opportunity-creating metrics should see them feature on the scoresheet against West Ham, who have lost 10 of their last 17 Premier League games, making their 7/5 favorites with Sky Bet look rather skinny.
Plus, for some reason that’s not clear at this point, it looks like it’s tough to win away from home in the Premier League this season. Yes, the sample size is small, but away teams have won only 20 percent of their matches, which is a significant drop in the average away win percentage of about 35 percent over the past five seasons.
It gives me the confidence to play for Everton as they win their first win of the season at 1/2 with Sky Bet.