Ozzie Albies’ latest injury spotlights Rookie Vaughn Grissom

Brett Davis USA Today Sports

back Ozzy Albis It didn’t last long. The 25-year-old was out for three months with a broken left foot that required surgery, and was back in the Braves lineup on Friday, but only managed a game and a half before breaking his right pinky which would sideline. him for at least the remainder of the regular season. Once again, the defending champion will have to lay off a key player for some time.

After going 1 vs 4 with a double run from Velez Nick Nelson In a 7-2 win on Friday night, Alpes made it to the base twice against Aaron Nola Saturday through a lonely walk. When marking and progressing from the first base in Eddie Rosario The ball flies in the fourth inning, slips to the second head first, jamming in his right hand Jean SeguraPresent it as he did. Alpes stayed in the match long enough to score Ronald Acuña Jr.Which was followed by a double but was replaced in the field von Grissom At the beginning of the fifth.

Albies won’t need surgery, but he will need to wear the splint for which he was installed Saturday night for three weeks, after which the team will assess when he can return to work. If the Braves (91-55) don’t beat the Mets (93-55) to win the NL East Championship, or do so but fall behind the Cardinals (87-61) and don’t win a goodbye in the first round, the playoffs will begin on Oct. Albies provides Wild Card series. If they win that goodbye, they won’t play their first Division Series match until October 11th, giving them more time.

Either way, it’s been a disappointing and frustrating season so far for Albies, who in just 64 hit .247/.294/.409 with eight players and 93 wRC+ in 269 games. He started with a big hit, playing six times in the Braves’ first 16 games, but only made 70 WRC+ from that point through June 13. Winning streak, Albiz hit a ground fish through an ill-fitting swing, then faltered while leaving the batter’s box and flew off the field. X-ray revealed broke down in his left foot. He underwent surgery to stabilize the fracture two days later and didn’t start his rehabilitation assignment until September 1.

In the first eight weeks of the Albies’ absence, the Braves patched things together on second base using Orlando ArchiaAnd the Phil JocelynAnd the Robinson CannonAnd they continued to win despite producing this sub-par trio. On August 10, when Arcia landed on IL with a strain in his left hamstring, they remembered Grissom, the 21-year-old who finished third Our list of the best potential braves This spring, behind Michael Harris II And the Spencer Strider. 2019 11th round pick from Paul J. Riley Green), Grissom started the season with High-A Rome, finishing last season. Between Rome and Double-A Mississippi, he hit a combined .324/.405/.494 (146 wRC+) with 14 homers and 27 steals. As with Harris, Braves decided to upgrade him directly from Double-A, and the gambit paid off.

Grissom ham Darwinson Hernandez On his first major league appearance, he’s continued to score an impressive clip ever since. 130 wRC+ his is 4th in the Braves since the day of his debut:

Brave attack since von Grissom debut (8/10/22)

player Palestinian Authority HR AVG OBP SLG wRC + war
Michael Harris II 137 8 .336 .380 .641 180 2.2
Travis Darno 85 6 .316 .388 .632 180 1.4
William Contreras 99 4 .326 .364 .489 134 0.6
von Grissom 126 5 .302 .357 .474 130 0.9
Marcel Ozuna 48 2 .295 .333 .500 127 0.2
Ronald Acuña Jr. 142 4 .266 .338 .438 115 0.5
Robbie Grossman 109 5 .240 .330 .417 110 0.5
Austin Riley 155 6 .212 .316 .379 96 0.4
Eddie Rosario 82 1 .253 .317 .360 90 -0.1
Dansby Swanson 159 4 .243 .296 .368 83 0.8
Matt Olson 148 7 .187 .257 .381 73 -0.2
the total 1311 52 .265 .331 .454 117 7.3

It’s an unlikely group that’s been hitting the ball lately, helping to offset the deteriorating production of Riley, Swanson and Olson, who have done their share of heavy lifting at other times this season. The Braves have hit 5.42 times in every game since Grissom debuted, posting a 26-9 (.743) best in MLB. It helped that the stadium staff had accompanied this fury by having opponents run up to 3.0 runs per game in the meantime.

As impressive as Grissom’s production was, maintaining it seems difficult unless he can hit the ball more consistently. The combination of an average hit of 0.345 on balls during play and an average exit speed of 84.2 mph is unlikely, with only one player having a low EV and a higher BABIP over at least 100 PA this year:

Williams is Marlins Luke Williamsof 0.354 BABIP offset by a strike rate of 31.9% and an average exit speed of 83.3 mph, which was generally unproductive:

.320 BABIP with an average exit speed of 85 mph or less

player Team Palestinian Authority EV baby AVG OBP SLG wRC +
Garrett Stubbs PH 107 84.5 .338 .287 .368 .511 145
von Grissom ATL 126 84.2 .349 .302 .357 .474 130
Chris Bryant COLE 181 85.0 .338 .306 .376 .475 125
Alejo Lopez CI 121 84.4 .337 .297 .355 .387 103
Jose Iglesias COLE 451 83.9 .336 .300 .337 .392 91
Luke Williams SFG / MIA 135 83.3 .354 .238 .289 .317 72
Jason Delay pit 137 84.0 .325 .219 .270 .266 53

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All players with combinations of EV and BABIP that look like Grissom’s either pull it off in a small sample or play in Colorado, or both (yikes, Kris Bryant). And there are already indications that the league is catching up with Grissom, such as the athleteDavid O’Brien noted:

The good news is that Grissom’s 33% hit average (percentage of ball hits 95 mph or higher) and 34.1% sweet spot rate (percent of ball hits with Firing angle in the range of 8-32°) are both within a few points of the major league averages (35.8% for the first, 33% for the last), and their rate is 7.7% above average by a full point. His actual slash stats far outperform the .267 xBA and .433 xSLG, which is certainly ample production for the average player, if not as streak as he puts it.

On the other side of the ball, Grissom is fairly new to second base play, and his defensive metrics – to the point where we can put a stock in after 290 runs, which is admittedly a stretch – are a bit harsh. As Eric Longenhagen wrote in his prospect report in June, Braves penned Grissom believing he could stay short, and at the Palace he played 161 games there, compared to 29 in third and 19 in second. It is slightly weak at the cornerstone across both the DRS (-2) and the RAA (-3), which is in line with Eric’s report that it “returned to drop more in the 2B/3B region, and [possibly] On the way to a super utility role ‘that will involve time on the court rather than being shortstop waiting If Swanson departs via free agency following a career best season (115 wRC+, 5.7 WAR).

In the short term, the Braves will probably be fine with Grissom filling in for the Albies, although the division race is tight, the difference in tracks between the winner (likely in the first round bye) and runner-up (likely a series against the second Wild Card team, Currently the Padres, with the winner playing top-seeded Dodgers) is important. our Play-off odds It gave the Mets the advantage of holding onto the lead (67.3% to 32.7%) and winning the World Championship (16.5% to 11.8%), though it was the Braves who would host the regular season final between the two teams, from September 30 to October 2. The NL East title is still close at hand, and while losing the Albies is a huge blow to the Braves, they won last year after losing Acuña for half a season. Neither the Mets nor any other team likely to get in their way need a reminder.