No player in the NFL has generated more interest in betting this season than Tree Lance He did in multiple sports books.
The San Francisco 49ers quarterback for the second year was a fashionable bet to win the regular season player of the year award. Lance attracted more MVP money than Tom Brady At PointsBet, and in August, more MVP money was bet on Lance in the Caesars Sportsbook than all of the NFC quarterbacks combined. Only Buffalo Bills Quarterback Josh Allen The Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert Attracted more bets.
Among the dozens of player props Caesars offered over the course of the season, more money was wagered on Lance’s streaming yards than any other prop, causing the streak to grow from 475.5 to 625.5. The third most betted player in Caesars was the bottom in Lance’s flowing yards. Caesars representative called Lance “easily the top 3 story in Caesars leading up to the NFL season.”
Some of the interest in casual betting in Lance stems from the odds. He opened at 200-1 to win the Caesars MVP award, an exorbitant price for the quarterback’s appearance over a perceived Super Bowl contender. His odds improved to 40-1 pre-season.
Top/bottom slot for flush yardage has varied greatly in sportsbooks, too. PointsBet opened at 524.5. Smart bettors live to take advantage of market inconsistencies and are not afraid to bet both sides on different bets for a chance to get to the middle and win both bets.
Adam Boleyn, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars, described the MVP’s action on Lance as “surprising and unsurprising.”
“Our opening number in hindsight was a bit high, but he’s basically a newbie taking the whole lead for the first time,” Paulin said. “We’ll see if he can come up with the type numbers that Rodgers or Brady or Mahomes will put in. Then we always get a lot of 49ers money from our northern Nevada bookmakers, and they obviously take the Lance. We had a huge responsibility on Jimmy. [Garoppolo] To win the best player award before last season.”
In addition to differences in the market, odds makers at Caesars have speculated that uncertainty over opposition 49ers star Deebo Samuel and where Jimmy Garoppolothe start of QB last year, may finally be the angles that were motivating the bettors.
“Lance is a great player for so many reasons…lots of betting options due to his run-and-drop risk, and he’s currently in a low-information spot due to a limited number of picks in the first year,” Sam Gariock, PointsBet’s lead NFL trader, told ESPN.
Interest in the Lance continued into Week 1. Caesars Sportsbook didn’t take its first bet on the bottom on the rushing Lance Arena against the Chicago Bears until Friday. Kaiser suspended betting on the prop on Sunday morning after images of the filthy conditions at Soldier Field began circulating on social media. Lance finished 54 yards flush in a 49-man loss to the Bears 19-10 – one of four outright upsets by the underdogs in Sunday’s bookmaker’s big opener.
Professional bookies caused two notable streaks in Sunday’s games. Both plays proved to be true.
• On Tuesday, influential betting syndicate Right Angle Sports released the Chiefs -4.5 on the Cardinals as a bet. The line rose to the Chiefs level -6.5, before closing at a consensus of -6. Caesars Sportsbook reported taking a pair of “six-figure” bets on Friday on the Chiefs at -6 and -6.5. Kansas City won 44-21.
• On Saturday afternoon, in the midst of a big day in college football, transfer money appeared on the Vikings, who, within hours, went from underdogs at home to little favorites on the Packers. Green Bay was a 1.5-point favorite for several months, but enough money came on the Vikings on Saturday and Sunday mornings to lead the line all the way to Minnesota-2 in some books.
“The late money came pouring in for the Vikings,” John Murray, CEO of SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN. “We kept moving [the line]And the sharp continued to play the Vikings anyway. We can definitely see why now. The audience was on the Vikings, too. Usually the Packers losing as a small favorite – which the streak has been all summer – would be a great result for us, but it wasn’t really like that. Lots of sharps and general players in Minnesota.”
“The Vikings seemed to be on the sharp side at all times,” Andy Morrissey, a trader at WynnBET, said in an email. “The decision ended up being our worst result of the weekend.”
On top of these two losers, sports analysts took the chops on the Ravens covering a 6.5-point difference in a comfortable 24-9 victory over the Jets. It was the worst decision made on Sunday for many sports bets.
However, before you get too concerned about bookmakers, here’s this from SuperBook’s Murray: “The combination of all those college football games and UFC 279 made Saturday our biggest day since March Madness.”
PointsBet chief communications officer Patrick Eichner called the first week of the NFL “a great start to the season” and other sportsbooks echoed those sentiments.
Our priority every week 1 [of the NFL season] is to bring as many customers as possible back to the platform,” Carol Corcoran, general manager of online sports magazine FanDuel, said Sunday night. And we have achieved that. “
College football dignitaries
• The sportsbook was cleaned up on Alabama’s close call against Texas on Saturday. In what was the hottest college football game of the day, the books beat out the underdog Longhorns that covered the spread, overall and in the first half.
Crimson Tide has been a halftime cover machine in recent seasons (19-6-1 ATS in the last two seasons), and the bookmaker audience has taken notice. On Saturday morning, more money was bet on the first half difference of Alabama and Texas than 32 of 45 full game margins at Caesars Sportsbook.
The bulk of the first half money was in Alabama, though the streak grew out of proportion to the spread of the full game. The Crimson Tide closed as a 21.5-point favorite, and the first-half streak went up to Alabama -14.
Caesars reported that 95% of the bets in the first half streak were on Alabama. Despite this, one seasoned bettor took the Longhorns +14 cards for $22,000 at Caesars and was rewarded with a 10-10 tie in the first half. Crimson Tide climbed a late run and won 20-19.
“This was a bonus for the house,” said Lamar Mitchell, sportsbook director for BetMGM Books in Nevada.
The amount to bet on the Alabama-Texas game was similar to the amount bet on the top 5 of the NFL on Sunday, according to Caesars Sportsbook’s chief trading officer Craig McCullough.
• On Saturday, a New Jersey bookmaker with Caesars Sports earned $50 per game with Marshall (+1,050), Washington State (+650) and Appalachian State (+700) paying $34,450.
• Colorado State opened as a 5-point favorite over Middle Tennessee in Circa Sports, the Las Vegas-based sportsbook known for publishing some of the first weekly lines of college football on the market. Line closed to Colorado high -14. Middle Tennessee led 34-0 and won 34-19.
The notable opening lines of the third week: [via Circa Sports]
Georgia -26, 48.5 in South Carolina
Oklahoma -16, 68.5 in Nebraska
Ocon at Michigan -45, 58.5
California at Notre Dame -11, 41.5
Penn State at Auburn-3, 47.5
BYU in Oregon -3, 56
Michigan State in Washington -2, 54.5
Miami, Florida. at Texas A&M -5, 50.5
Fresno at USC -12, 74.5
The sports book opens at the NFL stadium
Hours before the Cardinals’ chiefs kicked off Sunday, the attraction of the new stadium – the two-story, 17,000-square-foot BetMGM Sportsbook – was already thriving.
“Fans have been in the door from the moment we opened (9AM PT),” David Min, senior director of BetMGM, wrote in an email to ESPN.
The sportsbook, located a short distance from State Farm Stadium, is among the first ever at an NFL stadium. FanDuel operates a retail book in the parking lot of the MetLife Stadium complex in New Jersey. It’s a sign of the evolving sports landscape in the United States that in just the past four years, the NFL has gone from wanting anything to do with the spread of points to now being in the stadiums and running via tickets on the league’s cable network.
At a ribbon-cutting party last week, BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt said his company “shares the Arizona Cardinals’ vision of new ways to break down barriers and entertain fans.”
Cardinals owner Michael Bidwell added: “We are proud and thrilled to be the first team in the NFL to offer its fans this kind of unparalleled convenience and innovative experience. The BetMGM Sportsbook at State Farm Stadium gives us the opportunity to engage current and potential fans in a year-round way Fun, entertaining and responsible.”
The place with grill and bar will be open all year round, will host concerts and of course bets. Videos posted by BetMGM on social media showed a number of fans and bettors applying to betting windows and self-service betting booths. Kane said the fans were starting to filter as the Chiefs Cardinals game kicked off, but early in the day, it was rowdy.
“It was very interesting to see the energy as the chaos developed in the morning,” Kane said.