No. 22 Texas vs. Texas Tech: Advanced Stats Preview

Number 22 Texas Longhorns They came out with a 41-20 win over the UTSA Roadrunners in Austin last weekend. After an alarming start to 17-7 with a 1-2 set from a side kick followed by a double pass to score again, the Texans came back in the second half and dominated. The Longhorns have scared us before with disappointing follow-ups after their big out-of-conference matches, but they have shown some great consistency with their performances despite the slow start.

This Saturday, Texas will travel to Lubbock to play Texas Tech. In what could be another very competitive year for the Big 12, this week we’ll be analyzing the showdown against the Red Raiders as well as what the Big 12 scene looks like before the convention kicks off.

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There isn’t much to say about the Texas crime since last week. We saw running game flourish over the weekend as Bejan Robinson rushed back for 183 yards on 20 stands and finished with three touchdowns. Teammate running back Rochon Johnson rushed for 81 yards on 11 buggies as well. Hudson Card’s quad had a decent performance—15 pass of 23, 161 yards, touchdown, and concluded with 55.2 quarterbacks. Nothing catches the eye, but we know Sarkeesian is leaning on Bijan so that Queen Ewers can return.

The Texas Tech defense gave up 27 points in their loss to No. 12 North Carolina last week and 30 points in their overtime win over Houston the previous week. The outstanding players to look out for are midfielders Terry Wilson, who has 2.5 sacks and 21 total tackles in the season, and Krishon Meriwether with 0.5 sacks and 19 tackles. Defensive linebacker Philip Bledi has two bags and 11 tackles, while Tony Bradford Jr has one bag and five tackles. The seven up front have managed to create some serious pressure in their first three games and could cause some problems for a young UT O streak who continues to learn and grow.


The Texas defense had a hard time containing Roadrunners quarterback Frank Harris at first, and it got worse as the secondary couldn’t get a lock on Zachary Franklin and Joshua Cefus who accumulated 80 yards. However, Longhorn players Jaylan Ford and DeMarvion Overshown delivered on the stretch. Ford finished with 10 singles, 15 in total. Overtaking came during a big time on a crucial sack in third, but he was sent off due to a controversial targeting call. Appeal denied by the NCAA so he will miss the first half of the Texas Tech game.

Texas Tech quarterback Donovan Smith averaged 30.6 quarterbacks on the season, which ranks lowest in the Big 12. He’s thrown seven touchdowns but has five interceptions and 10 sacks a season. The Texan minor could advance and hope to get any passes Smith tends to force in coverage. Listed below is the Power Purchase Agreement and its use for Technical Offensive Stars.

Backstroke Tahj Brooks was used extensively in the ground game against Houston with a 17 carry for 78 yards, but he struggled against NC State, producing only four yards in four attempts. Their receiving teams racked up stats against Houston and Murray State, but only Miles Price was able to contribute effectively in last week’s game, with four catches for 50 yards and a touchdown.

This week, I thought we’d introduce a few different metrics for comparison. Eckel is a productive driver in a game that is determined if an attacker can come down first within 40 yards of the end zone or have a large turn lead to a landing. It’s slightly better than the red zone percentage because field targets can still be hit from this distance and are scoring factors from outside the red zone. Eckel’s rate is the rate of the game’s productivity engines. The pass rate is derived from a successful play in which an offense achieves 50 percent of the required yards in the first down, or 70 percent of the required yards in the second, or a complete turnover in the third or fourth. Below is a table showing all three metrics.

Aside from a lengthy two-quarter stalemate against Alabama, the Texans managed to push the ball down the field at a decent rate — Sarkissian may not have the explosive deep passes with Card under center, but Longhorns were able to generate points. The Texans defense was able to hold teams like Alabama with a 41 percent success rate, so they have the potential to keep Texans Tech 20 points or less. Based on the ratings, NC State was Tech’s toughest match to date, but statistically speaking, the Wolfpack aren’t as offensively strong as the Longhorns and their defense put up equivalent numbers. If NC State can hold Texas Tech to 14 points, I have a pretty perfect prediction for the Longhorns, especially when the Red Raiders’ passing game isn’t as strong.

Compare 12 big

Below is a graph showing the teams in the team’s attack and defense PPA in the Big 12 for the 2022 season.

Oklahoma and Baylor appear to be the biggest threats to the conference at the moment, while Texas has proven that their defense can be a real strength. We can hope that the offensive PPA will go up when the Ewers returns and Sark can take advantage of the full game guide. For a more detailed look at the PPA, I’ve compiled the stats below.

The big playoffs here are the strength of the season schedule so far. Texans had the toughest match out of the Big 12 with their match against Bama. Besides Kansas beating West Virginia in an overtime thriller, we’re relying on off-conference games to derive these conclusions. Longhorns’ PPA margin looks below average by comparison, but take note TCU He’s had a very easy record so far, and even then, their attack holds them tight.

The Big 12 features four teams ranked in the AP’s Top 25 this week – No. 6, Oklahoma, No. 9 OklahomaNo. 17 Baylor, and No. 22 Texas.

Texans seem to have gotten through the hangover of the big game with a victory over UTSA. Since Mac Brown’s departure, there has been a correlation with how the Texans performed in David vs. Goliath matches and how that affects the rest of the season.

When UT has close matches against a prime-time match without a conference, winning or losing, it tends to set the tone for the rest of the year. The close margin in that game is a significant contributor to this season’s total winnings (p-value .041). However, the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma results in a harsher penalty kick. Regardless of the margin, the loss against Oklahoma severely affects the performance of the rest of the season based on data from the past decade.


Texas is currently the favorite with seven points against Texas Tech, According to the Kings Project*. I hope Texans can score a bigger margin of victory just by seeing the advantages they have in multiple centers. A big win could help increase their momentum before the Oklahoma game in two weeks’ time. The Texans still have room for improvement on both sides of the ball, and with Ewers healthy, Sarkissian’s vision for the Big 12 will begin to come true.

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