NFL Insider Notes: Trey Lance injury muddles 49ers’ future QB plan, Tua uses guns and more from Week 2

The ankle injury suffered by Tre Lance at the end of the season means that San Francisco 49ers Little will be known about the franchise midfielder heading into his third year in 2023 with no major real-time football under his belt.

Lance’s ankle fracture in the first quarter ended his season just as it began. In two seasons, he’s only had 102 assists attempts, the fourth-lowest of the top five picks over the first two seasons since 1967. He could put the Niners in a very precarious position should conditions turn out in certain ways this year.

First of all, San Francisco is lucky to have been able to hold onto Jimmy Garoppolo. The insurance policy they took on by restructuring the former QB franchise is now paying off, and the Niners will gladly pay an extra $350,000 a week if it means it leads them to victories.

Winning this season is the most important, and what needs to happen outside of next season is a bridge that GM John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan won’t have to cross for months. But make no mistake: This bridge is getting close.

At first, maintaining the Garoppolo seemed an anecdotal sign to some that San Francisco would eventually have to sit on the bench for Jimmy J. The buzz increased this past week after the loss to the Great Monsoon in Chicago in 2022.

While it’s true that Lance didn’t have an impressive prep or boot camp, I’m told he upped his game in training immediately after Garoppolo restructured his deal. There was optimism – perhaps even confidence – that this would work. Now, a major injury setback for the young double-threat midfielder.

The Niners sent two future first-round picks in order to trade for Lance. It’s a lot of capital for someone who will get 102 passes in two seasons. Shanahan reiterated that Lance is their man publicly and privately.

But now you have Garoppolo on a one-year incentive-packed deal. He took you to the Super Bowl and came after another objection. The 49ers have arguably one of the most talented rosters in the entire league. And given the early flaws we’re seeing in Los Angeles, no one would blame you if you were to take San Francisco to win the NFC West now.

What happens if the Garoppolo balls come out? After all, he’s won 33 of his career 47 times and didn’t even take credit for Sunday’s win against Seahawks. He has a no-mark clause in his contract, so a big year means a big profit in 2023 for the midfielder who will soon turn 31.

The Niners could see Garoppolo walking out the door as nothing more than a compensatory mid-round pick as the franchise handed over to the inexperienced Lance, and any insurance policy they take out next March won’t be as good as the one they just got. Sunday.

There are worse problems than winning a group one year to having to make a tough decision at a quarterback months later. But this is a first-world problem that San Francisco could realistically face right after this season.

Just spread the wealth

Tua Tagovailoa has played the game of his career so far and his six touchdowns clearly stand out in what is likely to earn him the AFC Offensive Player of the Year award in no time.

But how well Tagoviloa managed to distribute the ball was just as impressive. nine dolphins I got a catch on Sunday against crows And 10 were targeted. Jaylen Waddle had 19 goals total, Tyreek Hill had 13 and a tight finish Mike Gesicki grabbed all four of his goals for 41 yards and a touchdown.

Waddle’s 19 goals broke his previous career high of 13. Last week when I sat down with Tagovailoa for a one-on-one interview for NFL todayI asked him if it was a blessing or a curse that he would answer how he distributed the ball with such a huge amount of weapons at his disposal.

“I think everything is a blessing and a curse. I look at this as a blessing. Being able to have all these guys I can throw at them,” Tagoviloa said. “There are some plays that we definitely wish we could come back to [in Week 1 against the Patriots] A few things get stuck in and first reading, I made it to the last read. Things like that happen which is how we started to play the game. You can craft the best plays and make this guy wide open in practice and then in the game it’s totally different. So you just interact with whatever is presented to you there.”

And while Tagovailoa may have responded more to outside noise this season than ever, he’s back to ban anyone not in the building or in his circle.

He explained, “I don’t necessarily use Twitter because I don’t manage my accounts. I have someone who helps me manage my accounts.” “I’d hear it from my teammates and then say, ‘Okay, let me see what they said. What I say about you, you have no control over. What you say about me, I have no control. This is what it is. What can I control? What can I not control?

“I either let it affect me or I don’t let it affect me. So with my answer, that’s just what I heard. Other than that, I go home to my wife and watch movies and you know, I’m enjoying my life. That’s how I go.”

Rework the winning formula

I have a bone to pick with analytics. *inhales deeply*

I believe in analytics. I love analytics. I think analytics gets a bad reputation among many in the football community. After all, everyone uses analytics to one degree or another, even if they don’t like the term “analytics”.

I struggle with the winning probability scale, and I always have.

Prior to the Monday night double, there were only 30 regular season games played so far this year. By my count, five of them were won when the eventual loser had a fourth-quarter winning probability of 93% or more (six games when the probability was 90% or more.) Once in 20 – occur regularly early in the season.

In the first week, the . program hawks He has a 97% winning probability with 12:55 left in the fourth quarter vs. saints When they had a 23-10 lead. Atlanta lost 27-26. The Bengals He has a 93% chance of winning a draw with 20 minutes left in overtime against Steelers He lost 23-20.

on Sunday, and Brown He had a greater than 99% winning probability up 30-17 with 1:55 left in the game. (Okay, that’s what I got.) Baltimore had a 98% winning probability when the Ravens were 35-21 ahead with 10 minutes left. The Dolphins won 42-38.

and the Raiders Has a 96% winning probability when leading 23-15 with 16 seconds left to basics. But Arizona was on the 3-yard line. The Cardinals had to score from 9 feet away, then get a two-point conversion to tie and score first or more in overtime. You mean to tell me that the probability of Arizona winning the game at that point was only 4%? This… I know nothing about.

My friend RJ White, managing editor of CBS Sports Fantasy, made a good point when I spoke publicly about my problems last night.

I realize I’m looking at a sample size of 30 here and determining when the probability of winning takes into account thousands of games over decades. But that may be exactly the problem. Why should we weigh teams coming back from a 10-point deficit of, say, 1993 as they are today?

The NFL has made no secret of its pursuit of parity across the league. Twelve games have already been decided by three points or less, the most in two weeks of any NFL season. Eight teams overcame a deficit of at least 10 points to win or draw, the second-most ever during Week 2. The game is changing, and these close matches and tight finishes regularly drive the notes the league office distributes to the media. It’s all about messaging!

Maybe we need to add “historical” before the probability of winning. Or, people who didn’t get a “C” in the stats class they attended college can select an “Adjusted Winning Probability” to calculate the aforementioned offensive blast.

Not a very special difference

One of the highlights of the first week was the kickers, whether they made or missed big shots. In Week 2, there were a few sudden flashes of special teams that might have flown under the radar.

With the Dolphins winning in such a dramatic fashion, it’s easy to forget that they allowed a 103-yard kick-back to land by Devin Duvernay. This was Duvernay’s second TD comeback kick, but the first time the Dolphins had allowed since the 2019 season.

In Pittsburgh, Steelers gunner Brenden Schouler did not block a penalty in the third quarter. Schouler went in the field to Gunner Olszewski, and when Olszewski hid the punctuation, he was there to collect. The Patriots scored three plays later to increase their lead to 17-6, and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin called it an “important play” in his post-match press conference.

Operations problems persisted with Denver Broncos In Week 2. Late in the third quarter, the Broncos lined up to attempt a 54-yard field goal with Brandon McManus, who had missed a game-winner from 64 yards the previous week in the much-discussed decision by coach Nathaniel Hackett. The Broncos ended up taking a late penalty—the third in seven quarters up to that point—and then harassed once the attempt was 59 yards in good weather and at high altitudes.

“It was something we talked about in those situations before,” Hackett later said. “We decided we wanted to take the kick and then obviously we were late in the game and decided to play it because our defense was doing really well.”

They burned their second half time with 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter when they failed to serve a kick back for Houston’s chariot. The Broncos had just sacked Davis Mills in third, and Texas They were in a clear bet position for 4th and 4th place Denver 45s in a tight game 13-9. But the Broncos had no back in the field and had to call a timeout.

Brown’s defense has to do a job

The Cleveland Browns need to recover in a big way this week from their epic meltdown against Planesand begins to defend them.

The defense got sloppy in its soft zone against the planes and allowed Joe Flacco to overpower the top in the final two minutes of the match. Defensive coordinator Joe Woods will need to make adjustments this week so the same doesn’t happen in a short week against Mitchell Trubesky and the Steelers on Thursday night.

And to make matters worse, Woods would miss his second best pass. Coach Kevin Stefanski, who was knocked out in the second half with an ankle injury and was later seen with a shoe in his right foot, ruled Monday.