Major League Baseball is officially in the extended region. Most teams have between 20 and 25 games left on their schedule, and there are eight to choose from starting at 6:10 p.m. ET or later on Monday.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+180)
The Diamondbacks are home-level underdogs versus the Dodgers on Monday, but they have a lot of sharp support. They received only 12% of bets on the financial line, but took 68% of the bet.
Departmental domestic dogs have also been hugely profitable in this price range this season. The home underdogs have gone between +150 and +200 to 35-43 in division rivalries this season, which is good for a 20.7% ROI.
Ryne Nelson made his second start in the big league on Monday, and things couldn’t have been better for him in his first game. He made seven innings without goals with seven strokes, and his advanced metrics were impressive. The Dodgers are clearly an important step up in the weight class, but Nelson has the potential to be a strong start.
Tyler Anderson will start with the Dodgers, and while he’s had an excellent season, he’s been undoubtedly lucky. Competing hitters were able to hit an average of 259 balls during play, and Anderson allows to put a lot of balls into play. He’s been starting to show some signs of declining recently, hitting 4.51 xFIP in the second half.
Pick: Pirate (+120)
The Pirates and Reds will face off in a battle of bad teams, but Pittsburgh has played better quietly lately. They have won a game in each of their series against the Mets and Cardinals, two of the best teams in the National League.
They will have the ability to keep things going against the Reds, who start left-footed Mike Minor on Monday. He’s struggled really hard this season, reaching a 5.70 ERA and 5.75 FIP across 90 innings. He was even worse when he was going home, his ERA jumping over six.
Bryce Wilson was no better for the Buccaneers, but they are another team that is generating some keen interest. They collected 53% of bet dollars on only 22% of bets.
Choice: Mike Trout for Homer (+300)
The big news with the Angels now is Mike Trout’s hunt for a date. Trout had a day off on Sunday — his second day since returning from IL on August 19 — but he’s back in six straight games. That’s good for the longest streak in Angels history, and it’s just two games away from setting the major league record of eight.
He will definitely have a chance to rejoin the board on Monday against Conor Pilkington. He owns 4.87 xERA of the year, and it allows for plenty of close contact. Its rate ranks the hardest hit in the 14th percentile, while its barrel rate ranks in the 6th percentile. Trout also feeds on right-handed shooting, owning a 362 ISO in this split, and 27 of his 34 buddies have faced conventional pitchers this season.
It would be really great if Trout set the record in 2022. The Angels continue to get unparalleled performances from Trout and Shohei Ohtani, yet they will miss the playoffs for the eighth year in a row. One day, people will look back and wonder how a team with two Hall of Famers could be so bad.
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