Week four of the college football season is already in place, and there are a couple of SEC games highlighting the AP Top 25 schedule.
#20 Florida travels to #10 Tennessee in the SEC East classic rivalry. The Gators dominated the series, but the Volunteers are the favorites this time around. It is also the main quarterback match between Anthony Richardson and Hendon Hooker.
Arkansas No. 10 and No. 23 Texas A&M renew their SEC West rivalry at AT&T Stadium. Pressing the Aggies to avoid a second loss, they are a favorite against the Razorbacks. Freshman Max Johnson can lead Texas A&M to consecutive victories against seeded teams, but Arkansas quarterback K. Jefferson was the star of this game last season.
This game is in prime time window with Wisconsin and No. 3 Ohio. The Badgers will try to make a much-needed statement to Big Ten West down the road.
Here’s a look at our record against the spread this season.
- straighten up: 51-10,836 (last week 18-2)
- ATS: 33-26-2, .558 (10-10 last week)
Updated odds on Caesar’s sports book
Here are our forecasts for the fourth week against the difference:
Week 4 picks against the spread
- Maryland in No. 4 Michigan (-17) (12 p.m., Fox)
This line decreased by half a point. Michigan 6-0 against Maryland under Jim Harbaugh, and those games were decided by an average of 33.7 points per game. Wolverines have yet to be tested, and Maryland averages 40.3 points per game. Terps haven’t seen an entire team like this yet. The Wolverines continue to roll with JJ McCarthy under center.
picking Michigan wins 42-20 and covers the spread.
- No. 5 Clemson (-7) at No. 21 Wake Forest (12 noon, ABC)
This is a hump game for the Deacons, who have lost their last 13 encounters against the Tigers. Clemson paused and started attacking, but the defense only allowed 14.0 points per game over three games. Get the value on Clemson before the spread goes up.
picking Clemson wins 38-30 and covers the spread.
- No. 17 Baylor, Iowa (-1.5) (12 noon, ESPNU/ESPN2)
The host team has won the last four matches, and three of those matches have settled seven points or less. The Bears missed a chance to win a tough road match two weeks ago at BYU. Hurricanes will make it tough, but we’ll stick with the ranked team. Bears 1-6 S/U as an underdog, but we’ll go against the trend and give the bears a second chance. This may be an option when the match kicks off.
picking Baylor wins 24-23 in upset.
- Kent State at #1 Georgia (-44.5) (12 noon, ESPN+)
The Golden Flashes lost to Washington and Oklahoma averaging 27.5 points per game, but the Bulldogs allowed only one TD attack in three games. Will the Bulldogs stay focused after last week’s impressive SEC opener against South Carolina? Georgia has been a home favorite with 2-5 ATS since 2020. Could a golden flash sneak into the casing here?
picking Georgia won 48-3 and covers their spread.
- Central Michigan in no. 14th Pennsylvania (-26)
Penn State crushes MAC opponents under James Franklin, and the last five wins have been averaging 40.8 points per game. It’s tempting to take the Chippewas, who scored 36.3 points per game in three weeks. Beware the tailgate cover here, but we’ll trust that record with Penn State.
picking Penn State win 48-21 and cover the spread.
- Middle Tennessee at 25 Miami (-26) (3:30 p.m., ACC Network)
Another big spread here, and a potential hangover game for hurricanes. Middle Tennessee State has had two victories in the past two weeks, but it’s the same team that lost 44-7 to James Madison in the opener. Miami bounced back from losing Texas A&M with a shaky home performance.
picking Miami wins 42-14 and covers the spread.
- No. 20 Florida at No. 11 Tennessee (-9.5) (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Who knows what to do in Florida? The Gators are up and down Anthony Richardson, and they can’t turn the ball against Tennessee — a 3-0 ATS this season. This is still an obstacle game. Florida has won the last five meetings, and that double-digit streak has gone down.
picking Tennessee won 35-28 but failed to cover the spread.
- No. 21 Texas (-4.5) at Texas Tech (3:30 p.m., TBD)
The Reds have not defeated the Longhorns at Lubbock since their legendary 39-33 shootout in 2008. Texas won 63-56 in 2020 and 70-35 last season. The Red Raiders must keep up with Bijan Robinson’s attack. Take the value with this spread under falling. The Longhorns win by their grand opening style 12.
picking Texas wins 42-31 and covers the spread.
- Tulsa vs. No. 16 Ole Miss (-20.5) (4 p.m., SEC Network)
The Rebels are ranked fifth in the country with a fast and impulsive attack, averaging 271.7 yards per game. Lane Kevin will be counting on it at home against a Tulsa team that is better than advertised. We still love the running game at home. Golden Hurricanes allowed 3.9 yards per carry. Will you hold up?
picking Ole Miss wins 38-17 and covers the difference.
- No. 15 Oregon (-6.5) in Washington State (4 p.m., Fox)
The Cougars have had one of the best early season stories of the season about quarterback Cameron Ward. The Ducks have won their last two encounters by 14 points and found their groove with the Bo Nix in the win over BYU in Week 3. We’ll trust the Ducks on the road, but there will be some troubling moments in what could be trendy. Choice upset.
picking Oregon wins 34-26 and covers the spread.
- Northern Illinois at No. 8 Kentucky (-25.5) (7 p.m., ESPN2)
The Wildcats have been poor at defense – only allowing 9.7 yards per game. Northern Illinois will be a challenge, but veteran quarterback Rocky Lombardi is in doubt after sustaining a leg injury against Vanderbilt. Huskys should generate a fast attack against this defense allowing 101.7 yards per game. Kentucky is moving away in the fourth quarter with the same meaningless formula.
picking Kentucky wins 35-10 and fails to cover the spread.
- No. 10 Arkansas vs No. 23 Texas A&M (-2.5) (7 p.m., ESPN)
Texas A&M is back on track with a win over Miami, but the Aggies must establish a running game against an Arkansas defense that only allows for 68.3 yards per game. KJ Jefferson was the difference maker in this showdown last year, and will present game-winning leadership in an exciting story.
picking Arkansas wins 28-25 in upset.
- Wisconsin v. No. 3 Ohio State (-18) (7:30 p.m., ABC)
This is another great spread. The Buckeyes defeated Wisconsin 38-7 on their last visit to The Shoe in 2019. The Badgers gave up 8.0 points per game in three weeks, but they faced no such offense. The Buckeyes is making a final prime-time statement this time around.
picking Ohio State wins 38-17 and covers the spread.
- UConn at No. 12 NC State (-39) (7:30 p.m., ESPN3)
NC State can’t look forward to the showdown against Clemson next week, even if quarterback Devin Leary should have cruise control offense by the second half against UConn. The Husky loses 59-0 at Michigan, but that spread still looks a bit high. Husky dogs 2-2 ATS.
picking North Carolina State won 48-10 and failed to cover the spread.
- Vanderbilt at No. 2 Alabama (-40.5) (7:30 p.m., SEC Network)
Commodores and Crimson Tide don’t play much, but Alabama has won the last two meetings in 2011 and 2017 with a 93-0 aggregate score. Vanderbilt improved under second-year coach Clark Lea, and Crimson Tide were hit by a penalty shootout. Alabama has covered two 40-point teams this season, and they’re doing it again here.
picking Alabama wins 49-7 and covers the spread.
- Kansas State at No. 6 Oklahoma (-13) (8 p.m., Fox)
The Sooners reasserted themselves as a team to win the Big 12, but Kansas State played them hard under Chris Kleiman. The Wildcats have won two of the last three fights, and all have been decided by seven points or less. However, Kansas loses Tulane. This Oklahoma team with Brent Venables is different.
picking Oklahoma wins 38-24 and covers the spread.
- 7 USC (-6.5) in Oregon (9:30 p.m., Pac-12 network)
USC is taking Show on the road again with an average attack of 50.7 points per game. Oregon could score (45.7 dpi) too, and that could be their best Back 12 After Dark game of Week 4. The Beavers routed the Trojans 45-27 last season, but there’s a value in half that point dropping in the streak.
picking USC wins 38-30 and covers the spread.
- Wyoming at 19 BYU (-21) (10:15 p.m., TBD)
The Cougars emerge from a brutal loss in Oregon. Wyoming hasn’t won in Provo since 1987. The Cowboys have won three in a row since their Week 0 loss in Illinois, and UBC may need half to roll at home. This game is closer than expected.
picking BYU won 35-17 and failed to cover the spread.
- No. 13 Utah (-15) in Arizona (10:30 p.m., TBD)
Bottom has fallen for the Sun Devils, who are coming off an embarrassing loss to eastern Michigan and have shot Herm Edwards. Arizona won’t come out flat, and that’s a lot of points for a trail favorite. But Utah has looked like a different team since its first week loss to Florida. Utes takes care of the business behind their running game averaging 216.7 yards per game, and they close it with turnover in the fourth quarter.
picking Utah wins 33-14 and covers the spread.
- Stanford at No. 18 Washington (-12) (10:30 p.m., FS1)
The Husky family are building on the momentum of last week’s big win against Michigan State, and now they’re opening up a pac 12 against Stanford. The Cardinal had a farewell week, and the last five confrontations between these two contenders have been decided by ten points or less. Midfielder Michael Benicks Jr is still leading another win, but it will be fun late into the night.
picking Washington won 34-24 but failed to cover the spread.