Carlos Correa comes out on a high note

© Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

This is my first piece of Divi as a file Contributor to FanGraphs. Davy is a writer and musician who lives in Brooklyn. I have previously written for baseball flyer, He contributed to the Too Far From Town series about underage shrinkage. He bakes fancy cakes and plays guitar for The Subway Ghosts, a punk rock band whose other members are also baseball writers. Davey grew up in Falls Church, Virginia, and his first memories of booing were pouring down Glenn Davis At Memorial Stadium.

Carlos Correa Pick a great time to turn things around. The 28-year-old is widely expected to ditch his three-year contract with the Twins this winter, and is ready to enter the free agent market in tatters. Correa cuts .377/.438/.663 in September, which is good for a 216 wRC+. This is the sixth best mark in the entire baseball game and the second among the short stops, after only the red hot Bo Bechet.

Like Bichette, Correa had a rough time earlier in the season. Where did things go wrong for the future ex-twin? It’s time for some fun with our 15 day spin averages!

Correa rose in May despite losing time with a bruise on his finger, crash and burn in July, and rose from the ashes in August. Hey, maybe he should log into Phoenix. Let’s see if Korea was just unlucky:

Well, that was easy. He has a case of BABIPs. Sometimes you just need to hit them where there isn’t, Carlos. Case closed, I think. I’m going to check out some monthly splits real fast so we can stop early:

2022 Football League Divisions Monthly – Carlos Correa

Month flexible% with% Difficult% barrel% LD% woopa xWOBA
April 18% 40% 42% 4% 20% .284 .292
mayo 9% 49% 42% 15.1% 19% .384 .409
June 12% 56% 33% 16.4% 23% .430 .411
July 15th% 50% 35% 10.6% 12% .267 .353
August 24% 46% 30% 8.8% 20% .345 .348
September 20% 40% 40% 13.3% 27% .468 .375

Source: baseball world

shoot. back to work. Sure, Correa had bad luck in July, but there was something else going on as well. Its barrel rate and thrust fell off a slope in July, while its weak touch rate climbed to dizzying highs in August. Hey, maybe he should sign with Colorado.

It turns out that the Correa coil of the milled ball changed dramatically because its tuning in the plates changed dramatically:

2022 Monthly Discipline Splits – Carlos Correa

Month BB% K% swing% whiff% Z-swing swing %
April 9% 30% 47.3 30.1 66.7 29.5
mayo 8% 18% 49.3 21.6 68.2 31.4
June 10% 21% 45.7 23.8 69.5 25.2
July 11% 17% 41.7 20.1 58.2 27.6
August 15th% 18% 37 18 52.5 21.9
September 8% 20% 48.6 18.8 70.3 27.5

This is where you enjoy. Correa’s walking rate increased and his strike rate decreased as he stopped swinging just as much. Correa knows that’s a good thing. “Walking means that plank discipline is in place, and walking is a big part of today’s game,” said St. Paul Pioneer Press A few weeks ago. “It has a lot of value, it has a lot of projection – it’s a skill.”

Justin Choi taught us that Swinging is generally a bad idea Because stadiums outside the region are rising. In July, Korea did not stop chasing balls. He just stopped swinging on strikes. Then in August, his chase rate also decreased. During these months, specifically avoid playgrounds in the lower two-thirds of the area. Time for some heat maps!

On the left is the swing percentage for Korea from April to June. On the right are July and August. He swung 3% more pitches in the upper third, 15% less pitches in the middle third, and 20% less pitches in the lower third.

Let’s find out that was a good trade off. The three heatmaps below cover Korea’s entire career. On the left is the slow rate of the balls during play. On the right has a higher run rate of every 100 shots. In the middle, easy to compare, its swing ratio:

Would you look at that? They line up pretty much perfectly. It’s good policy to swing the pitches you’re most likely to crush, and that’s what Correa has done for most of his career. He’s also done so in the first two months of this season. Here’s what I swing for in July and August:

Yikes. Korea was lost at sea. As we know, he has swung in a lot of promotions. His swings outside the upper third of the region were more focused on the low and far, where it has historically been the worst. More walks and fewer hits is great, but they come at the cost of Korea’s overall effectiveness in balls in play. He sailed away from the spots where he caused the most damage and WRC+ sank quickly. Hey, maybe he should sign with Seattle.

When checking the stats of the hit ball, some patterns begin to appear:

Monthly stats for 2022 – Carlos Correa

Month LD% LD EV LD LA LD xwOBA FB% FB EV FB LA FB xwOBA
April 20% 100.7 18.1 .628 22% 94.5 41.7 .370
mayo 19% 102.8 14.8 .806 32% 96.3 36.1 .678
June 23% 94.9 16.4 .732 44% 94.2 35.5 .656
July 12% 100 15th .794 44% 92.2 37.6 .473
August 20% 87.4 16.1 .535 39% 93.5 34.7 .610
September 27% 95.0 14.0 .645 38% 95.1 37.1 .526

Source: baseball world

Correa’s line engine rate erupted in July, coinciding with lower aggressiveness against the changes. Meanwhile, his lower exit velocity made his fly balls much less valuable. He was swinging less against fastballs in August. While his fly balls got back to normal, he also hit more pop-ups and his linear motors lost all their exit velocity and much of their value.

The good news is that Korea is slowly retreating toward its old ways. His increasing aggressiveness on the plate is paying off. Here are the first two swing ratio heat maps we looked at, along with those for September:

And for a good metric, here’s the deluxe version of this month’s swing percentage heatmap:

The fluctuations started to trend downwards towards the middle of the area. The better news is that Korea still has room for improvement. Its hit rate, barrel rate, and exit velocity are still slightly lower than they were in May and June.

Moving forward, it may also be useful to monitor Korea’s aggressiveness against the changes in particular. Over the course of his career, Correa has swung in 44% of changes, and has been excellent against them, ranking 22nd in pitch value since 2015. Since July, he’s swung just 26.5%. Since changes are generally less in the region, this may explain some upward drift in its plate-discipline statistics. Although the hot month of September has come with increasing aggressiveness against every other stadium, it is swinging in fewer changes than ever.

To continue his renewed approach, Correa sees his wOBA outperform xWOBA by nearly 100 points in September. All this good fortune nearly offset the bad luck he faced in July. As the season comes to a close, his totals look all too familiar:

2022 and average career stats – Carlos Correa

year HR BB% K% AVG OBP SLG woopa xwOBA wRC + war
2022 21 11% 20% .288 .365 .467 .362 .365 140 4.1
average occupation 19 11% 20% .278 .357 .479 .357 .363 129 3.9

Korea is on track to have the third best season of his career by WAR and WRC+. Despite the dual nature of this season, it looks like his 2022 stats and career averages will be pretty much the same. Hey, maybe he should just re-sign with Minnesota.