Boston Red Sox Series Preview: It’s a disappointing season in Boston

He took the Boston Red Sox ALCS to six games last season and brought back a good part of the same team, but he stood out in adding healthy Chris Sale along with a great free agent signed Trevor Story to their roster for the best. However, in mid-September, they were sitting under 0.500 and in last place in the Middle East, after being jumped by the Baltimore Orioles. I guess that’s not what they had in mind. They don’t exactly have their health. His first new captain, Eric Hosmer, is on the shelf with a lower back problem. Franchi Cordero, who has had a few moments, is shelved with a sprained ankle. On the show side, Kutter Crawford and Nathan Eovaldi both hit IL in the past month or so and join James Paxton, who was no surprise, and Sale, who only started twice this year before getting hurt again. Tanner Hook and Josh Taylor are also missing from their desk. They could really hit, although their spells are inconsistent, but their bet was poor. This is a talented roster, so we haven’t given up hope for the next half-decade or anything, but this has been a very tough year in Boston.

Royals vs Red Sox match stats

category Royals red socks
category Royals red socks
the win% .396 .483
H2H wins 3 1
wRC Team + 91 102
xFIP Team 4.45 4.08
differential operation -165 -36
Top fWAR Brady Singer, 2.4 Xander Bogarts 6.0

Expected Red Sox lineup

player POS Palestinian Authority AVG OBP SLG BB% K% wRC + the war
player POS Palestinian Authority AVG OBP SLG BB% K% wRC + the war
Tommy Fam LF 553 .245 .320 .384 9.2% 27.1% 94 1.0
Alex Verdugo RF 576 .284 .332 .404 6.4% 12.2% 104 1.7
Xander Bogarts SS 570 .317 .384 .474 8.8% 19.5% 141 6.0
Raphael Devers 3 b 542 .287 .347 .526 7.2% 18.8% 138 4.6
Trevor’s story 2B 396 .238 .303 .434 8.1% 30.8% 101 2.4
JD Martinez DH 630 .272 .343 .423 9.1% 24.0% 114 0.5
Tristone Homes 1 b 30 .115 .233 .346 13.3% 26.7% 60 -0.1
Enrique Hernandez CF 333 .219 .282 .349 7.8% 18.3% 74 0.2
Connor Wong c 29 .250 .321 .458 10.3% 24.1% 112 0.2

Expected Red Sox seat

player POS Palestinian Authority AVG OBP SLG BB% K% wRC + the war
player POS Palestinian Authority AVG OBP SLG BB% K% wRC + the war
Reese McGuire c 240 .271 .308 .349 4.2% 20.4% 85 1.3
Kevin Blawicki c 173 .219 .291 .290 8.1% 16.2% 64 -0.4
Yu Chang INF 164 . 216 .280 .324 6.7% 31.7% 77 0.1
Christian Arroyo INF / OF 264 .278 .321 .416 4.9% 16.7% 103 0.3
Abraham Almonte From 6 .500 .500 .667 0.0% 16.7% 235 0.1
Rob Rifsnyder From 146 .307 .384 .472 9.6% 24.7% 141 0.8

Red Sox key dampers

jar J IP W The K% BB% era xFIP the war
jar J IP W The K% BB% era xFIP the war
Garrett Whitlock 30 77.1 3 2 26.4% 4.9% 3.49 3.23 1.4
John Schreiber 57 58.1 3 3 29.2% 5.8% 2.01 2.77 1.9
Matt Barnes 37 32.2 0 4 20.0% 12.0% 5.23 4.93 0.0

Royals vs Red Sox Predicted text matches

Sept 16 – RHP Jonathan Heasley vs. RHP Michael Wacha, 6:10 p.m.

jar J IP W The K% BB% era xFIP war
jar J IP W The K% BB% era xFIP war
Jonathan Hesley 17 81.2 3 8 15.4% 10.5% 5.51 5.57 -0.6
Michael Washa 19 107.0 11 1 20.6% 6.1% 2.69 3.91 1.9

I think Jonathan Hesley drew a bad card on his last outing, as he had to play in the rain and really felt like it was more difficult when he was on the hill. But it wasn’t good, it doesn’t rain or shine. His sprint pace was low, which led to him going to IL earlier this season and he has continued to show that he’s not good enough to be in a big league, and not just at this point. Against a team that hits almost like everyone else, Heasley was unable to score a hit in four runs after only hitting two against them in his previous outing. Tigers swing and miss Much He got 11 when he faced 50 hitters. The truth is, these results don’t cut it. It’s easy to look at his slider and change it up and think there might be something up, but until he puts the scores together (and less often throws the fastball), it probably doesn’t matter.

Career vs. BOS: First Appearance

There was a time when Michael Washa looked like he might be the next big thing. He debuted in 2013 (against the royal family actually) and was awesome. Both in that match and in that season. He was solid in 2014 and amassed 30 starts in 2015, albeit with some increasingly questionable peripherals, but he was 350 starts early in his career and was only heading into a 24-year-old season. But he struggled and got hurt and sometimes even struggled while getting hurt. He bounced back a bit, but he’s really come back into the action world with a very good season for the Red Sox. He accomplished it by changing his signature. He throws it just under 30 percent of the time and gets 35 percent of the swing with an average 0.156 allowed. It was great paired with a four-stitch speedball that was good, a cutter that was raised and lowered, and a very effective heavy. This change made him a left-wing nightmare, and while he did well on the road, he was unreal at home with 1.79 ERAs in eight starts.

Functional vs. KC: 9G, 8GS, 52.0 IP, 3-2, 3.81 ERA

Sep 17 – RHP Brady Singer vs. LHP Rich Hill, 3:10 p.m.

jar J IP W The K% BB% era xFIP war
jar J IP W The K% BB% era xFIP war
Brady Singer 24 134.2 8 4 24.0% 5.7% 3.21 3.32 2.4
Rich Hill 22 102.2 7 6 19.7% 7.6% 4.56 4.23 1.3

If nothing comes out of the 2022 season other than Brady Singer who has shown that he is not only part of a major league rotation but the legitimate top half of the start of the rotation, this season will be a huge success. I’ve said several times that he’s been showing signs of tiredness during his last few starts. He looked good for a few starts after his great play against the Dodgers, but then hit a wall in the fifth inning against the White Sox at the end of August and then struggled for swings and fails against The Guardians. But he came back for one last time against the bad tigers attack and threw seven rounds stopping and it looked fairly easy in the process. This is a good sign. He should have three starts left after this. If he can finish the year on a high (with three of those four against good fouls/competing teams) it will go so far as to bolster my confidence in him going forward.

Career vs. BOS: First Appearance

We all know Rich Hill’s story and it’s a good one. His career changed with his four starts in 2015. He was 35 years old at the time and returned to the team that helped him revitalize his career in a one-year deal. The problem is that after going from slightly above average to much above average in the past six seasons, he may finally be starting to come back down to earth. His hits subsided for some time and became more and more successful. He hasn’t been a fan of the roles in a while, but his fastball got to the point that he probably shouldn’t throw in that much. He allowed an average of .325 and .569 SLG on him. The rest of his pitches have been fine, but he doesn’t get a lot of flak and miss these days, even with his curves. It also took a hard hit at home with the allowable OPS of the .845 compared to the .700 on the road. His big problems came with the base runners. It allowed the .223/.305/.328 streak with the bases blank, but once the runners hit the base, that jumps to .311/.345/.609, which is definitely not good.

Functional vs. KC: 14 G, 5 GS, 25.0 IP, 2-2, 5.76 ERA

Sep 18 – LHP Kris Bubic vs. RHP Nick Pivetta, 12:35 p.m.

jar J IP W The K% BB% era xFIP war
jar J IP W The K% BB% era xFIP war
Chris Bobick 25 116.2 2 12 17.9% 10.5% 5.55 4.57 0.2
Nick Pevita 29 160.2 9 11 22.4% 8.9% 4.31 4.24 1.8

I know I said this in the last series preview, but I honestly don’t know if what Chris Bobek is doing now is terribly encouraging or frustrating. Obviously the results are horrific, but he’s actually hitting the punch, which was a big problem for him earlier this year. He has a 7.04 ERA in his last six starts, but that comes with a strike rate of 66.9 percent. Prior to this stretch, he had topped that number in just three starts. But also, he was hit hard. Some issues are bad luck with the .416 BABIP, but some may be the throwing too much strikes. It’s always better to have Something To count on him and although I don’t think his shot put is that useful, at least it’s something he can start from. In the eight starts before this stretch, he put up a 3.04 ERA with a 4.13 FIP. The BABIP was at this .267 extension, so that helped, but it only had a 64 percent strike rate at this extension. Can these two marry? That’s the big question as Bubic appears to be the average player in the league as he was in 2020 and 2021.

Functional vs. BOS: 3G, 2GS, 12.2 IP, 1-1, 6.39 ERA

There has been some talk for some time that Nick Pevita should finally put it together. I have to say I’m not sure I fully understood that. His Fastball doesn’t seem to be doing enough. I feel like it could be good, but it leaves it on top of the plate a lot and I’m surprised the numbers against it aren’t actually worse. Its curve is pretty good when it’s right, but it hangs a lot. His slider has been so good this year, maybe this is the playing field to use more? He has traditional platoon splits with left that added 34 points from OBP and 36 points from SLG. It was also much worse at home. And he’s definitely an archer that you can get to if you wait. It let the .726 OPS the first time through, the .685 OPS the second time, and then jumps to the .837 the third time.

Functional vs. KC: 3 GS, 14.1 IP, 0-1, 7.53 ERA

Royals vs Red Sox

The way the royals play on the road, I can’t imagine they would win more than one game. I find it hard to believe they are going to win a game, but I expect the match just to be hopeful.


Can the royal family win in Boston?

  • 0%

    win over? Try three wins!

    (0 votes)

  • 0%

    Not only will they win, but they will take the series with two wins.

    (0 votes)

  • 0%

    Yes, but only one.

    (0 votes)

  • 0%

    Ha, no. They will never win.

    (0 votes)

0 votes total

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