Arkansas vs Texas A&M Odds, Prediction and Betting Trends for Week 4 Match

No. 10 Arkansas faces No. 23 Texas A&M Saturday night at AT&T Stadium (7 p.m. ET on ESPN) on the 2022 show of the Southwest Classic. Arkansas is looking to get back on track after an uncomfortable 38-27 win over FCS Missouri State, while Texas A&M is looking to score its second straight win with newly appointed quarterback Max Johnson leading the attack. Saturday’s meeting marks consecutive Southwest Classics as both Arkansas and Texas A&M are ranked in the AP’s top 25.

Despite Missouri being in the top 10 in the FCS rankings with former Power Five coach (Bobby Petrino) and QB (Jason Shelley), the Razorbacks had to dig themselves out of a fairly big hole, trailing 17-0 to Bears in the first half. Arkansas was able to go forward in attack from the second quarter onwards, scoring all 38 points in the second through fourth quarter. The end result is a bit misleading, as this game played more like a one-point game while Arkansas ended up with a double-digit win.

Texas A&M rebounded again after their disappointing 17-14 loss to the Appalachian State in Week 2 with a much-needed win over the then-No. 13 Miami. While the Aggies exited Kyle Field with a 17-8 victory, this game was a little closer to the indicated end result. Miami outplayed Texas A&M 392-264 but struggled in the red and caused the ball to be thrown, giving Texas A&M a prime position in one of its touchdowns of the night. Could Johnson and Aggies’ offensive put together a more complete game against the Razorbacks?

More college football betting: ATS Week 4 Picks

Here’s everything you need to know about betting in the Week 4 match between the Razorbacks and the Aggies:

Arkansas vs Texas A&M odds

Odds Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

  • Propagation: Texas A&M -2.5
  • More / Less: 48.5
  • Money line: Texas A&M -135; Arkansas +115

After sitting around five pre-season favorites, Texas A&M reopened as a 2.5-point favorite at this clashing neutral location over the weekend. The up/down also saw some movement, falling to 48 after opening around 53.5.

Three trends to know

Texas A&M has won nine of the past 10 games against Arkansas.

The total has fallen in five of Texas A&M’s past seven games.

according to BetQLWhile Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson completed 70.5% of his passes this year, note that Jimbo Fisher teams are 12-5 SU against teams who completed at least 62% of their passes.

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Three things to see

Max Johnson vs. KJ Jefferson: As always, all eyes will be on the quarterback battle, but this looks very special, as Johnson will kick off his first SEC conference with Texas A&M. When Johnson was still a member of LSU, he played sparingly in the Tigers’ 16-13 loss to Arkansas last season, completing three of six passes for 21 yards. Johnson looked better in the pocket than teammate Aggie QB Haynes King, but his first start was nothing special, completing 10 of 20 passes for 140 yards and one TD. Jefferson has been a much more stable entity in the QB position and has faced a relatively difficult schedule of opposing defenses to start the season. The Texas A&M defense is the most complete defense the Razorbacks will face over their first four weeks, so we’ll see how Kendal Briles’ unit stacks up on Saturday night.

—Aggies Pass Defense: Texas A&M boasts a PFF rating of 97 degree of coverage (62.6) and will rise in class against the talented Razorbacks who welcome Legion-themed Matt Landers and Jadon Haselwood. Aggies’ passing defense played far better than their seemingly better 97 coverage level, limiting Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke to 21 of 41 passes for 217 yards and no touchdown. Van Dijk was forced to broadcast more football than the Hurricanes would have hoped due to a negative game script for the majority of the competition. Miami was without its best receiver, Xavier Restrepo, although the Razorbacks’ receiving corps are more or less rounded than Hurricanes.

Red Zone Defense: Any team able to limit the effectiveness of their opponents in the red zone is likely to have the upper hand on Saturday night. Texas A&M has limited Miami to just nine points out of a total of six scoring chances (the ball is past the opponent’s 40-yard line) and will need a similar takeout if they are to beat Arkansas. The Arkansas defense was also effective when it had its back against the wall, limiting Missouri State to just 13 points from seven scoring chances. Which defense remains brave when it matters most?

Arkansas vs Texas A&M forecast

This is a difficult game to participate in from a betting point of view, as there is a great deal of uncertainty about the possible outcome. Given that Texas A&M sat 6.5 points higher in this game, “line value” is clearly on the Aggies’ side, but there is a reason for the spread to be lower. While Texas A&M’s defense is ready to take on the challenge, Max Johnson and Aggies offense must show more. As a result, we’ll lean on the Razorbacks’ side, as Jefferson leads Arkansas to a second straight win in a one-sided competition for the Aggies.

prediction: Arkansas 24, Texas A&M 20. Arkansas (+2.5) Covers the spread as the game continues under Total (48.5).