Aaron Judge Milestone Homer Odds Update: When will he hit number 60?

Jeff Hansch – USA Today Sports

Another series, another home package Aaron Judge. The Yankees star hit a hot beat in September, and on Sunday, he hit his 58th and 59th in his win over the Brewers. As per usual, I’ve updated his game-by-game odds for him making 60th, 61st and 62nd in a given game the rest of the season. If you want to see the judge tying Babe Ruth, tying Roger Maris, or leaving every former Yankee team (and American Legion) in the dust with a 62, you can see our predictions below.

One note: I’ve added some bells and whistles to this drop to deal with the judge’s resting state. The Yankees have been more aggressive than I expected in terms of bringing him into the games in September. To reflect that, I’ve changed the way I approach my day off. Previously, I set a specific day and did not give the judge any panel appearances on that day. As we head into the day off, and get closer to a few milestones, this inevitable way of approaching the holiday feels wrong to me.

Instead, I generated a random Aaron Boone in my simulation. Beginning in Game Two of the Boston series, the fourth game in nine games in nine days, Boone will consider giving Judge a rest. More specifically, there is a 10% chance that he will give him a rest in every game of the Boston series and every game of the subsequent Toronto series. After Judge gets one day off, though, Boone won’t give him another day for the remainder of the season. This works out to a 60% chance of a day off in total: 10% in each of the last three games of the Boston Series and 10% in every game in Toronto. There’s no way to know if this is true or not, but I think it comes close to reversing how Boone handles the judge.

With that in mind, here’s the breakdown of the time Judge makes his 60th on home soil, as obtained by simulating the rest of the season a million times. If you want to see it, go to the Bronx in a hurry:

Aaron Judge odds of running 60 at home

day Discount home away Odds of reaching 60 hours
9/20 Pittsburgh residence 29.6%
9/21 Pittsburgh residence 20.9%
9/22 Boston residence 15.3%
9/23 Boston residence 9.6%
9/24 Boston residence 7.0%
9/25 Boston residence 5.1%
9/26 Toronto far 4.0%
9/27 Toronto far 2.7%
9/28 Toronto far 1.9%
9/30 Baltimore residence 1.2%
10/1 Baltimore residence 0.9%
10/2 Baltimore residence 0.6%
10/3 Texas far 0.3%
10/4 Texas far 0.2%
10/4 (AED) Texas far 0.2%
10/5 Texas far 0.1%

Getting to 60 is now more of a formality than a question. In fact, Judge’s odds of hitting 60, 61, and 62 are pretty high, even compared to the already high chances of hitting those milestones you calculated last week:

Possible Different Totals Aaron Judge Milestone HR

a job Odds on 9/14 Odds on 9/19
60+ Homer 96.8% 99.6%
61+ Homer 90.9% 97.3%
62+ Homer 80.8% 90.9%

Onward, then, to 61. In total, there’s a roughly 50% chance that he’ll hit that against rival Red Sox:

Aaron Judge odds of running 61 at home

day Discount home away Odds of getting to position 61
9/20 Pittsburgh residence 4.0%
9/21 Pittsburgh residence 10.4%
9/22 Boston residence 13.4%
9/23 Boston residence 11.9%
9/24 Boston residence 11.0%
9/25 Boston residence 9.7%
9/26 Toronto far 9.2%
9/27 Toronto far 7.4%
9/28 Toronto far 5.8%
9/30 Baltimore residence 4.1%
10/1 Baltimore residence 3.3%
10/2 Baltimore residence 2.5%
10/3 Texas far 1.6%
10/4 Texas far 1.2%
10/4 (AED) Texas far 1.0%
10/5 Texas far 0.8%

In fact, Judge set such a sharp pace last week that the Toronto series, once your best bet to see all three of his 60th, 61st and 62nd runs, barely clings to its spot as the series with the highest chance of seeing 62-hit Maris. barely still hanging; If you can only attend one game or series, book a ticket for Toronto:

Aaron Judge 62 home run odds

day Discount home away Odds of reaching position 62
9/20 Pittsburgh residence 0.3%
9/21 Pittsburgh residence 2.3%
9/22 Boston residence 5.4%
9/23 Boston residence 7.2%
9/24 Boston residence 8.5%
9/25 Boston residence 9.1%
9/26 Toronto far 10.1%
9/27 Toronto far 9.7%
9/28 Toronto far 8.7%
9/30 Baltimore residence 6.9%
10/1 Baltimore residence 6.2%
10/2 Baltimore residence 5.2%
10/3 Texas far 3.6%
10/4 Texas far 3.0%
10/4 (AED) Texas far 2.6%
10/5 Texas far 2.1%

Obviously, this is all subject to change. The Yankees have a day off tomorrow, but that was the only sure way to keep Judge off the board recently. Just for fun, I ran a few versions of the higher numbers Judge could theoretically reach. By my numbers, he has a 45% chance of hitting Homer Plateau 65, which is a massive tally. He has a 1.7% chance of reaching 70, which seemed out of the question even at the beginning of the month. And I had to see how likely it was that it would match Barry Bonds’ record of 73 homers. Unlikely, obviously; In fact, only 780 times out of 1 million simulations occurred – in other words, .08%. This tour is forever, but it’s noticeable Not zero.

If you told me at the beginning of the year that someone had any chance at all of matching Bonds, I wouldn’t believe you. The judge’s 2022 season was so good that he woke up to the echoes of Bonds at his best. I don’t think there’s any better way to describe Judge’s season than by saying that he brought back the era of home run chase in the early 2000s, all on his own.